Market Resolution

Market resolution is the process of determining the outcome of a prediction market after the real-world event has occurred.


How Markets are Resolved

  1. When the event outcome becomes known, the market enters LOCKED status and trading stops.
  2. An authorized resolver determines the winning outcome based on the market's resolution criteria.
  3. The market status changes to RESOLVED.
  4. Winning outcome shares become redeemable for $1.00 each.
  5. Losing outcome shares become worthless ($0.00).

Resolution Scenarios

Binary Market Resolution

ResultYES SharesNO Shares
YES wins$1.00 each$0.00
NO wins$0.00$1.00 each

Categorical Market Resolution

In categorical markets, each outcome has its own YES and NO shares. When the market resolves:

  • The winning outcome's YES shares are worth $1.00 each.
  • The losing outcomes' NO shares are also worth $1.00 each (since those outcomes did not occur).
  • The winning outcome's NO shares and the losing outcomes' YES shares are worth $0.00.

For example, in a market with outcomes A, B, C, and D, if outcome B wins:

SharesValue
B YES$1.00 each
A NO, C NO, D NO$1.00 each
B NO$0.00
A YES, C YES, D YES$0.00

Market Cancellation

In rare cases, a market may be cancelled rather than resolved. This can happen for the following reasons:

  • The question is ambiguous or cannot be fairly resolved
  • The underlying event is cancelled
  • Force majeure or extraordinary circumstances

When a market is cancelled:

  • All shares (every outcome) can be redeemed
  • Shares are redeemed at the price at the time of cancellation, not at $1.00
  • For example, if YES was trading at 60¢ when cancelled, YES shares are redeemed at 60¢ and NO shares at 40¢
  • No outcome is declared a winner or loser

Payout Structure

ScenarioWinning SharesLosing Shares
Resolved (Win)$1.00 per share$0.00
CancelledRedeemed at cancellation priceRedeemed at cancellation price

After Resolution

Once a market has been resolved, follow these steps to collect your winnings:

  1. Go to your Portfolio page.
  2. Look for positions with a Redeemable status.
  3. Click Redeem to collect your winnings.
  4. The USDC payout is sent to your Trading Wallet.
  5. From there, you can transfer funds to your Funding Wallet or use them to trade in other markets.

There is no time limit on redemption. You can redeem your winning shares at any time after a market has been resolved.